The recent National Resistance Movement party primaries in Uganda have delivered a seismic shock to the political establishment, with ten sitting ministers in President Yoweri Museveni's cabinet losing their bids for parliamentary seats. This unprecedented wave of defeats across multiple constituencies signals a dramatic shift in Uganda's political landscape just months ahead of the crucial 2026 general elections. The fallout from these results extends far beyond individual political careers, touching upon fundamental questions about governance, representation, and the future direction of Africa's longest-ruling party. As the dust settles on these primary contests, the implications ripple through every level of Ugandan politics, from remote villages to the highest corridors of power in Kampala.
At the forefront of this political earthquake stands David Bahati, the State Minister for Trade, Industry and Cooperatives, whose defeat in Ndorwa West constituency after two decades as their representative marks the end of an era. Bahati, a key architect of Uganda's economic policies and longtime Museveni loyalist, lost to 37-year-old Kampala-based lawyer Eliab Naturinda Mporera by a decisive margin of 25,027 votes to 23,759 . The symbolism wasn't lost on observers when Mporera declared that "every generation has a duty to establish its own wish," positioning his victory as emblematic of a broader generational shift within the National Resistance Movement . Equally surprising was the ousting of Musa Ecweru, the full cabinet Minister for Relief, Disaster Preparedness and Refugees, who lost in Amuria County after fifteen years as their parliamentary representative . These weren't isolated incidents but part of a comprehensive rejection of establishment figures across the political map.
The agricultural sector's voice in government was silenced when Fred Bwino Kyakulaga, State Minister for Agriculture, fell in Kigulu County, a defeat widely interpreted as farmers' verdict on agricultural reforms that failed to improve rural livelihoods . Similarly, Godfrey Kabbyanga's loss as State Minister for ICT and National Guidance in Bukonzo West suggested diminishing public confidence in the government's much-touted digital transformation agenda . The wave didn't spare female leadership either, with five women ministers unseated: Jennifer Namuyangu (Bunyoro Affairs), Peace Mutuuzo (Gender, Labour and Social Development), Dr. Joyce Moriku Kaducu (Primary Education), Victoria Rusoke Businge (Local Government), and Rose Lilly Akello (Ethics and Integrity) . Their collective defeat raises urgent questions about gender representation in Uganda's political future, particularly concerning given that some held specialized portfolios addressing critical social issues.
Frederick Ngobi Gume's downfall as State Minister for Cooperatives in Bulamogi North West came amid swirling allegations of cooperative scandals, suggesting voters are increasingly holding officials accountable for corruption allegations . Peter Lokeris, the Energy State Minister who lost his Chekwii County seat after over two decades in Parliament, rounded out the list of high-profile casualties in a purge that cut across geographical regions, ministerial portfolios, and gender lines . The comprehensive nature of this political reset reveals deep structural shifts within Ugandan society that transcend individual personalities or local grievances.
Several interconnected factors explain this dramatic reversal of political fortunes. At the grassroots level, analysts detect mounting frustration with leaders perceived as disconnected from constituency needs despite holding prestigious cabinet positions. Political analyst Dr. Sarah Lwanga captured this sentiment, noting, "This is a strong message from the grassroots. It's not just about national performance—it's also about how connected these leaders are to their constituents" . The primaries also revealed a striking generational dimension, with younger challengers successfully framing long incumbency as liability rather than asset. Mporera's victory speech emphasizing generational duty resonated far beyond Ndorwa West, capturing a national mood for renewal .
Compounding these dynamics was the issue of unmet expectations in critical sectors. Farmers expressed discontent through Kyakulaga's defeat, urban constituencies showed frustration with digital transformation through Kabbyanga's ouster, and allegations of corruption haunted figures like Gume . The broader context of low voter turnout, especially in Buganda region, further skewed results toward mobilized factions rather than broad popular will. As NRM Kampala Central Chairman Salim Uhuru conceded, "There was a gap in mobilisation. People weren't adequately engaged" . Opposition voices like MP Muwanga Kivumbi interpreted the Buganda turnout as particularly ominous, declaring that "despite the president's heavy investment in Buganda, the political ground has shifted" .
The implications for Uganda's political system are profound and multifaceted. President Museveni now faces a delicate balancing act between rewarding loyalty and responding to the electorate's clear demand for renewal. As one anonymous senior NRM official revealed, "Losing a primary doesn't necessarily end a minister's influence. The President could reappoint them as ministers through the 'ex-officio' route, though that comes with political risks" . This dilemma strikes at the heart of Museveni's leadership style—whether to heed the grassroots message or double down on trusted allies. The results also expose growing fractures within the National Resistance Movement, with the potential for further internal realignment as defeated ministers weigh their options. Some may accept the verdict gracefully, others might challenge results through the NRM electoral tribunal, while the most ambitious could mount independent bids despite the risk of expulsion from the party .
Beyond individual careers, these outcomes raise existential questions about the NRM's social contract with Ugandan citizens. The rejection of ministers associated with key government initiatives suggests diminishing returns from long-standing policy approaches. When figures like Bahati—architect of signature industrial policies—fall in their political strongholds, it signals a disconnect between national economic narratives and local realities . Similarly, the defeat of education and agriculture ministers indicates policy dissatisfaction in sectors directly impacting ordinary Ugandans' lives. The NRM's response to this verdict will significantly influence its 2026 electoral strategy, forcing a recalibration of messaging, candidate selection, and policy priorities.
Looking ahead, the defeated ministers face divergent paths that could reshape Uganda's governance landscape. Several may pursue independent candidacies in the general elections, testing whether personal support transcends party machinery despite the NRM's historical hostility toward such moves. Others might transition to diplomatic roles, with ambassadorial postings offering graceful exits from frontline politics while retaining government influence. Behind-the-scenes advisory positions represent another avenue, allowing experienced administrators to contribute to policy without electoral pressures. For some, this defeat may prompt complete political retirement, opening space for new leadership while closing chapters on decades-long careers.
The NRM organizationally faces immediate challenges in managing fallout from these results. Party leadership must determine whether to officially endorse winning primary candidates who toppled cabinet heavyweights or find ways to accommodate defeated ministers elsewhere on tickets. This internal reconciliation process will test the party's cohesion and discipline heading into a critical election cycle. Simultaneously, the National Resistance Movement must analyze whether these defeats reflect isolated local dynamics or a broader trend requiring strategic overhaul. Early indications suggest recognition of this imperative, with NRM spokesperson Emmanuel Dombo highlighting collaboration with police to ensure peaceful processes and ongoing mobilization efforts .
For Ugandan democracy more broadly, these results offer both promise and concern. The rejection of entrenched incumbents demonstrates that electoral accountability remains possible even within dominant-party systems. However, reports of violence during primaries and low voter turnout temper optimistic readings, suggesting democratic institutions remain fragile. The coming months will reveal whether these outcomes represent healthy political renewal or signal destabilizing fragmentation within Uganda's governing coalition.
As Uganda approaches the 2026 watershed, the fate of these ten ministers becomes more than a personnel question—it serves as a barometer for the country's political direction. President Museveni's handling of this unprecedented rebuke to his cabinet will reveal much about his leadership priorities in what could be his final term. Will he interpret these results as a mandate for generational transition, or will he entrench loyalists through alternative appointments? The answer could determine whether the National Resistance Movement successfully renews its connection with a changing electorate or faces further erosion of its historical dominance. What remains undeniable is that Uganda's political terrain has shifted fundamentally beneath the feet of its established leaders, with implications that will resonate far beyond the next election cycle. The story of these ten ministers transcends individual careers, becoming instead a compelling chapter in Uganda's ongoing political evolution—one whose final pages have yet to be written.
