Uganda and Kenya Assure No War Over Indian Ocean Oil Dispute , Museveni Remarks, Mudavadi Response & EAC Diplomacy 2025.

Uganda and Kenya Assure No War Over Indian Ocean Oil Dispute , Museveni Remarks, Mudavadi Response & EAC Diplomacy 2025. - Runfarbiz Network
In the vast expanse of East Africa's geopolitical landscape, where landlocked nations like Uganda grapple with the eternal challenge of accessing the sea, a recent flare-up in diplomatic tensions has once again thrust the relationship between Uganda and Kenya into the global spotlight. It all began with a seemingly innocuous yet provocative statement from Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, delivered during a radio appearance in Mbale City on November 8, 2025. Speaking with the candidness that has become his trademark after decades in power, Museveni declared that it was "madness" for landlocked countries to be obstructed from exporting goods via the ocean.
He went further, lamenting the endless cycle of negotiations over infrastructure projects like railways and pipelines, only to assert, "That ocean belongs to me. I am entitled to that ocean. In the future, we are going to have wars." These words, broadcast across the airwaves, landed like a thunderclap in Nairobi, igniting a firestorm of criticism and concern among Kenyan lawmakers and the public alike.
The immediate response from Kenya was swift and measured, embodied in the reassuring tones of Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi. Addressing the National Assembly just days later, on November 19, 2025, Mudavadi sought to douse the flames of speculation. Responding directly to pointed questions from Suba South legislator Caroli Omondi, who highlighted Uganda's history of military interventions in neighboring countries such as South Sudan, Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mudavadi emphasized the unbreakable bonds of regional cooperation. "On the issue of the Indian Ocean, I just want to say that there are conventions and international obligations which deal with landlocked countries, and the African Union Constitutive Act is one of such instruments," he stated firmly. "So I want to assure you that we are not going to go to war. We have always, since time immemorial, provided free passage for goods from landlocked countries.
This is our international obligation, and it also helps our ports grow."Mudavadi's visit to Uganda earlier that same week, where he met with President Museveni at State Lodge in Mayuge District, underscored the personal diplomacy at play. Accompanied by high-level delegations, the discussions reportedly focused on trade facilitation, border management, and the shared economic future of the East African Community (EAC). Photographs from the meeting, showing the two leaders in animated conversation against the serene backdrop of the lodge, painted a picture of camaraderie rather than confrontation. Yet, beneath this veneer of harmony lies a deeper, more intricate tapestry of historical grievances, economic interdependencies, and strategic imperatives that have shaped Uganda-Kenya relations for over a century.
To truly appreciate the weight of Museveni's remarks and Mudavadi's reassurances, one must journey back to the roots of Uganda's landlocked predicament. Uganda, a nation of approximately 48 million people as of 2025, is hemmed in by five neighbors: Kenya to the east, South Sudan to the north, the Democratic Republic of Congo to the west, Rwanda and Tanzania to the southwest. Its lack of direct access to the sea is not merely a geographical footnote but a fundamental constraint on its economic ambitions. Since colonial times, when the British carved up East Africa into protectorates, Uganda has relied on Kenyan ports—primarily Mombasa—for its maritime gateway. The Uganda Railway, constructed between 1896 and 1901, was a colonial lifeline that snaked from Mombasa through Nairobi to Kisumu and beyond, ferrying goods and people into the Ugandan interior. This infrastructure, born of imperial necessity to exploit ivory, cotton, and other resources, became the artery of post-independence trade.
Fast-forward to the turbulent post-colonial era, and the relationship soured dramatically under Ugandan dictator Idi Amin, who ruled from 1971 to 1979. Amin's expulsion of Asian traders, many of whom were Kenyan citizens of Indian descent, and his erratic foreign policy strained ties to the breaking point. Border closures, trade embargoes, and even military skirmishes marked this period, culminating in the 1978-1979 Uganda-Tanzania War, which indirectly bolstered Kenyan security concerns. Amin's regime collapsed, but the scars lingered. When Museveni seized power in 1986 after a bush war against Milton Obote's government, he inherited a nation desperate for stability and economic revival. Early in his tenure, Museveni prioritized reconciliation with Kenya under President Daniel arap Moi, reopening borders and fostering trade that ballooned from mere millions to billions of dollars annually.
Today, in 2025, the economic stakes could not be higher. Kenya's exports to the region have surged by an astonishing 108 percent since President William Ruto took office in 2022, with Uganda emerging as Kenya's largest export market, capturing 11.3 percent of all Kenyan goods in 2024 alone. Everything from Kenyan maize and cement to manufactured electronics flows northward, while Uganda sends coffee, gold, and petroleum products southward. The Port of Mombasa, Africa's busiest when measured by cargo throughput, handles over 30 million tons of freight yearly, a significant portion destined for or originating from Uganda. Yet, this symbiosis is fragile. Uganda frequently accuses Kenya of non-tariff barriers—delays at Malaba border post, arbitrary phytosanitary inspections, and favoritism toward local trucking cartels—that inflate costs and stifle intra-EAC trade. In response, Uganda has diversified its routes, investing heavily in the Northern Corridor (via Kenya) and the Central Corridor (via Tanzania), but Kenya remains the dominant pathway.
Museveni's radio outburst must be viewed through this prism of frustration. At 81 years old, the veteran leader has long championed pan-African unity, but his rhetoric often veers into the provocative. His mention of "endless discussions" alludes to protracted negotiations over mega-projects like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), which extends from Mombasa to Naivasha and is eyed for extension to Kampala and Kigali, and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), a $5 billion venture to transport Ugandan oil from the Albertine Graben to Tanga in Tanzania. These initiatives, plagued by funding shortfalls, environmental protests, and geopolitical maneuvering, symbolize Uganda's quest for sovereignty over its resources. The EACOP, in particular, represents a strategic pivot away from Kenyan dependence, but delays have forced Uganda to truck oil through Kenya temporarily, reigniting old tensions.
Enter the Indian Ocean itself—a shimmering prize laden with untapped potential. Spanning over 70,000 square kilometers in the East African offshore domain, these waters are believed to hold billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas. Exploration rights are doled out in blocks by coastal states, but overlapping claims create a minefield of disputes. Kenya and Somalia, for instance, have been locked in a maritime boundary tussle since 2014, culminating in a 2021 International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling that awarded Somalia the lion's share of the contested 100,000 square kilometers. Kenya, rejecting the verdict as biased, has appealed to the UN Security Council and deepened military patrols in the area. Uganda, ever the opportunist, has eyed these blocks not as a belligerent claimant but as a stakeholder seeking exploration licenses to secure future export routes.
The specter of conflict raised by Museveni isn't born in a vacuum; it's echoed in historical precedents across Africa.
Consider Bolivia, another landlocked giant, which lost its Pacific coast to Chile in the 1879 War of the Pacific and has since pursued diplomatic and legal avenues for restitution, including a 2018 ICJ case dismissed in Chile's favor. Or Zambia and Zimbabwe, both hemmed in without sea access, relying on South African and Mozambican ports amid frequent blockades. In Europe, post-World War I treaties left Austria and Hungary landlocked, fueling revanchist sentiments that simmered into the 20th century. Museveni's invocation of "wars" taps into this global undercurrent of resentment, where geography dictates destiny and powerful neighbors hold the keys to prosperity.
Yet, Mudavadi's invocation of international law offers a counter-narrative of hope and obligation. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ratified by both Uganda and Kenya in the 1990s, enshrines the rights of landlocked states to access the sea through transit countries. Article 125 mandates "freedom of transit" for goods, ensuring non-discriminatory treatment at ports and along routes. Complementing this is the African Union's Constitutive Act of 2000, which promotes integration and prohibits interference in member states' affairs. Within the EAC, the Common Market Protocol of 2010 aims for seamless trade, though implementation lags due to protectionism. These frameworks aren't mere paper tigers; they've facilitated billions in intra-regional commerce, from Uganda's $2.5 billion in annual exports via Mombasa to Kenya's $1.8 billion in imports from Uganda.
Diving deeper into the mechanics of this assurance, Mudavadi's reference to "free passage since time immemorial" isn't hyperbole. Historical records from the 19th century show Swahili traders from Mombasa provisioning Ugandan caravans with beads and cloth in exchange for ivory. Post-independence, the 1967 EAC Treaty pooled resources for shared ports, airlines, and railways, though it collapsed in 1977 amid Amin's chaos before revival in 2000. Today, initiatives like the Single Customs Territory (SCT) streamline clearances, reducing border wait times from days to hours. Kenya's government, under Ruto's "bottom-up" economic model, has invested $1.2 billion in port expansions, including deeper berths for oil tankers and digital tracking systems that benefit Ugandan shippers directly. In return, Uganda's growing middle class—projected to reach 20 million by 2030—fuels Kenyan retail giants like Nakumatt and Shoprite, creating a virtuous cycle.But let's not romanticize; challenges persist.
Uganda's petroleum sector, with 6.5 billion barrels in proven reserves from the Lake Albert fields, demands reliable outlets. The EACOP's 1,443-kilometer pipeline is 80 percent complete as of late 2025, but financing gaps—exacerbated by Western banks' divestment over climate concerns—have delayed commissioning to 2027. Meanwhile, Uganda's interim reliance on Kenyan roads strains infrastructure: the Malaba-Kampala highway sees 1,500 trucks daily, contributing to potholes, accidents, and smuggling. Kenyan truckers, organized under powerful unions, lobby for quotas that sideline Ugandan haulers, while corruption at weighbridges siphons millions. Museveni's frustration boils over in such asymmetries, where Uganda foots 70 percent of transit fees yet reaps only partial benefits.
To unpack Museveni's military history, as flagged by Omondi, is to confront Uganda's role as East Africa's reluctant gendarme. Since 1986, Museveni's forces have intervened in Rwanda's 1990 invasion, toppling Hutu extremists in 1994; stabilized Burundi's civil war in the 2000s; and led AMISOM missions in Somalia since 2007, degrading Al-Shabaab at a cost of over 500 Ugandan lives. In South Sudan, Uganda's 2013 deployment backed President Salva Kiir against Riek Machar, drawing UN rebukes for prolonging the conflict. The DRC interventions, from 1996's "Africa's World War" to ongoing operations against ADF rebels, have yielded mineral concessions but also accusations of plunder.
This track record breeds wariness in Nairobi, where memories of the 1982 coup attempt—allegedly Ugandan-backed—linger. Omondi's query thus resonates: Is Museveni's "wars" rhetoric a veiled threat, or a cri de coeur for equitable access?Kenya, no stranger to its own security dilemmas, counters with a doctrine of defensive multilateralism. The Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) maintain a 4,000-strong contingent in Somalia, while naval patrols in the Indian Ocean combat piracy and fisheries poaching. Domestically, Ruto's administration has poured Sh100 billion ($770 million) into border security since 2022, including drone surveillance along the 933-kilometer Uganda frontier. Yet, Kenya's economy—projected to grow 5.2 percent in 2025 per IMF estimates—thrives on regional stability. Disruptions, like the 2023 anti-tax protests that spilled over borders, underscore the perils of isolationism.
Amid this bilateral drama, the EAC emerges as the linchpin for resolution. Formed in 1999 by Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, and expanded to include Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, and the DRC, the bloc boasts a combined GDP of $300 billion and a population of 300 million. The EAC's Vision 2050 envisions a political federation, with free movement of people, goods, and capital. Recent wins include the 2024 launch of the EAC e-Passport, easing travel, and harmonized standards for agricultural exports. But hurdles abound: Non-compliance with EAC Court rulings on trade disputes, currency volatility (the shilling's 15 percent depreciation against the dollar in 2025), and uneven infrastructure development. Uganda pushes for a regional navy to patrol shared waters, while Kenya advocates for joint venture blocks in offshore exploration.
Looking seaward, the Indian Ocean's bounty tantalizes. Seismic surveys by Tullow Oil and TotalEnergies estimate Kenya's offshore reserves at 1.5 billion barrels, with first production slated for 2028. Uganda, partnering with these firms, seeks junior stakes in adjacent blocks to secure refining and export synergies. A cooperative model—perhaps a tripartite Uganda-Kenya-Somalia framework under AU auspices—could unlock $50 billion in revenues by 2040, per African Development Bank projections. This isn't fantasy; the Nigeria-São Tomé Joint Development Zone, operational since 2001, demonstrates how adversaries can co-manage resources.
As Mudavadi and Museveni parted ways in Mayuge, their handshake symbolized more than protocol—it embodied the pragmatic realism that has sustained Uganda-Kenya ties. Museveni's bluster, like a lion's roar, asserts strength but rarely leads to claws. Kenya's responses, tempered by economic self-interest, prioritize ports bustling with Ugandan cargo over battlefields. The African Union, through its Peace and Security Council, monitors such flashpoints, ready to mediate as it did in the 2022 Ethiopia-Tigray truce.
In the broader arc of African diplomacy, this episode reaffirms a truth: Wars are costly luxuries for developing nations. The continent loses $100 billion annually to conflicts, per AU estimates, diverting funds from schools, hospitals, and roads. Uganda's 2025 budget allocates 20 percent to defense but 25 percent to infrastructure; Kenya's mirrors this, with ports getting the lion's share. Dialogue, as Mudavadi insists, is the only viable path. Forums like the EAC Summit in Arusha, scheduled for December 2025, will likely feature joint communiqués on transit rights, perhaps even a memorandum on maritime access.
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